Statistics: Informed Decisions Using Data (4e)

Mike Sullivan regularly teaches introductory statistics, and this experience has helped him develop a understanding of what today’s students need to succeed in the course. Statistics: Informed Decisions Using Data, Fourth Edition, provides tools that help students see the bigger picture and make informed decisions. In addition, Mike’s contributions to the supplements and technology program make it easier to teach a multi-dimensional, engaging course.

Developed for this new edition, a Student Activity Workbook with accompanying instructor notes helps instructors integrate activities into their course. Also, the text offers new features that take advantage of statistical software, so students can focus on building conceptual understanding rather than memorizing formulas. A new example structure offers a bridge between by-hand solutions and the use of technology, and updated technology support appears in each chapter. All the resources—including the author’s Camtasia Studio^® videos that respond to student questions and his national survey data in StatCrunch—were created for Mike’s classroom and are available for use in yours, to help students succeed and stay engaged.

Part I:  Getting the Information You Need

Chapter 1  Data Collection

1.1   Introduction to the Practice of Statistics

1.2   Observational Studies and Experiments

1.3   Simple Random Sampling

1.4   Other Effective Sampling Methods

1.5   Bias in Sampling

1.6   The Design of Experiments

Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: What College Should I Attend?

Case Study:  Chrysalises for Cash

 

Part II:  Descriptive Statistics

Chapter 2  Creating Tables and Drawing Pictures of Data

            2.1 Organizing Qualitative Data

            2.2 Organizing Quantitative Data: The Population Displays

            2.3 Additional Displays of Quantitative Data

            2.4 Graphical Misrepresentations of Data

            Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: Tables or Graphs?

Case Study:  The Day the Sky Roared

 

Chapter 3  Numerically Summarizing Data 

            3.1 Measures of Central Tendency

            3.2 Measures of Dispersion

            3.3 Measures of Central Tendency and Dispersion from Grouped Data

            3.4 Measures of Position and Outliers

            3.5 The Five-Number Summary and Boxplots

            Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: What Car Should I Buy?

Case Study: Who Was “A Mourner”?

 

Chapter 4  Describing the Relation Between Two Variables

            4.1 Scatter Diagrams and Correlation

            4.2 Least-Squares Regression

            4.3 Diagnostics on the Least-Squares Regression Line

            4.4 Contingency Tables and Association

            4.5 Nonlinear Regression: Transformations (on CD)

            Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: Relationships of Variables on a World Scale

Case Study: Thomas Malthus, Population, and Subsistence

 

Part III: Probability and Probability Distributions

Chapter 5  Probability

            5.1 Probability Rules

            5.2 The Addition Rule and Complements

            5.3 Independence and the Multiplication Rule

            5.4 Conditional Probability and the General Multiplication Rule

            5.5 Counting Techniques

            5.6 Putting It Together: Probability         

            5.7 Bayes’s Rule (on CD)

            Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: The Effects of Drinking and Driving

Case Study:  The Case of the Body in the Bag

 

Chapter 6  Discrete Probability Distributions

            6.1 Discrete Random Variables

            6.2 The Binomial Probability Distribution

            6.3 The Poisson Probability Distribution

            6.4 The Hypergeometric Probability Distribution (on CD)

            Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: Should We Convict?

Case Study:  The Voyage of the St. Andrew

 

Chapter 7  The Normal Probability Distribution

            7.1 Properties of the Normal Distribution

            7.2 Applications of the Normal Distribution

            7.3 Assessing Normality

            7.4 The Normal Approximation to the Binomial Probability Distribution

            Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: Stock Picking

Case Study:  A Tale of Blood, Chemistry, and Health

 

Part IV:  Inferences – From Samples to Population

Chapter 8  Sampling Distributions

            8.1 Distribution of the Sample Mean

            8.2 Distribution of the Sample Proportion

            Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: How Much Time Do You Spend in a Day?

Case Study:  Sampling Distribution of the Median

 

Chapter 9  Estimating the Value of a Parameter Using Confidence Intervals

9.1 Estimating a Population Proportion

9.2 Estimating a Population Mean

9.3 Confidence Intervals for a Population Standard Deviation

9.4 Putting It Together: Which Procedure Do I Use?

9.5 Estimating with Bootstrapping (NEW)
Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: How Much Should I Spend for this House?

Case Study:  Fire-Safe Cigarettes

 

Chapter 10  Hypothesis Tests Regarding a Parameter

            10.1 The Language of Hypothesis Testing

            10.2 Hypothesis Tests for a Population Proportion

            10.3 Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean

            10.4 Hypothesis Tests for a Population Standard Deviation

            10.5 Putting It Together: Which Method Do I Use?

            10.6 The Probability of a Type II Error and the Power of the Test

            Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: Selecting a Mutual Fund

Case Study:  How Old Is Stonehenge?

 

Chapter 11  Inference on Two Samples

            11.1 Inference about Two Proportions

11.2 Inference about Two Means: Dependent Samples

            11.3 Inference about Two Means: Independent Samples

            11.4 Inference about Two Standard Deviations

            11.5 Putting It Together: Which Method Do I Use?

            Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: Which Car Should I Buy?

Case Study: Control in the Design of Experiment

 

Chapter 12  Inference on Categorical Data

            12.1 Goodness of Fit Test

            12.2 Tests for Independence and the Homogeneity of Proportions

            Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: Benefits of College

Case Study: Feeling Lucky? Well, Are You?

 

Chapter 13  Comparing Three or More Means

            13.1 Comparing Three or More Means (One-Way Analysis of Variance)

            13.2 Post-Hoc Tests on One-Way Analysis of Variance

            13.3 The Randomized Complete Block Design

            13.4 Two-Way Analysis of Variance

            Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: Where Should I Invest?  Part II

Case Study: Hat Size and Intelligence

 

Chapter 14  Inference of the Least-Squares Regression Model and Multiple

                     Regression

            14.1 Testing the Significance of the Least-Squares Regression Model

            14.2 Confidence and Prediction Intervals

            14.3 Multiple Regression

            Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: Buying a Home

Case Study: Housing Boom

 

Chapter 15  Nonparametric Statistics

            15.1 An Overview of Nonparametric Statistics

            15.2 Runs Test for Randomness

            15.3 Inferences about Measures of Central Tendency

            15.4 Inferences about the Difference between Two Medians: Dependent Samples

            15.5 Inferences about the Difference between Two Medians: Independent     

                    Samples

            15.6 Spearman’s Rank-Correlation Test

            15.7 Kruskal-Wallis Test

            Chapter Review

Chapter Test

Making an Informed Decision: Where Should I Live?

Case Study: Evaluating Alabama’s 1891 House Bill 504

 

Appendix A  Tables

Appendix B  Lines  (on CD)

 

Answers

Index

 

• Concept and Vocabulary exercises have been combined with the Skill Building exercises at the end of each section. Fill-in-the-blank and True/False questions now open the section-level exercise sets that assess the students’ understanding of vocabulary introduced in the section. These problems are followed by exercises that allow the student to practice skills developed in the section.
• Explaining the Concepts appear at the end of the section-level exercise sets, asking students to explain the ideas in their own words and forcing them to think critically rather than simply memorize facts.
• Making an Informed Decision projects that open each chapter have been updated with new and exciting scenarios that allow students to make an informed decision, using the skills developed within the text.
• More than 35% new and updated exercises include writing exercises that require students to explain the results of their statistical analyses. Answers in the back of the text provide recommended explanations of the results. Additional exercises require students to understand pitfalls in faulty statistical analysis.
• More than 40% new and updated examples continue to engage students while providing clear, concise explanations.
• The new example structure presents by hand solutions side-by-side with technology solutions. This allows flexibility for an instructor to present only by hand, only technology, or both solutions.
• Classroom activities and applet activities have been updated and are now gathered in a new Student Activity Workbook. This workbook also includes exercises that introduce esampling methods that help develop conceptual understanding of hypothesis testing. The workbook is accompanied by an instructor resource guide with suggestions for incorporating the activities into class.
• The Instructor's Guide to the Activities Manual and Workbook accompanies the Student Activity Workbook with suggestions for incorporating the activities into class, and is available from the Pearson’s Instructor Resource Center and from MyStatLab™.

Key Content Updates

• Chapter 2, Organizing and Summarizing Data
• The exercise sets went through a major overhaul with the goal of increasing the number of problems with data students find interesting and relevant.
• Chapter 3, Numerically Summarizing Data
• The presentation of measures of dispersion was reorganized so that the emphasis is on the standard deviation, rather than the variance.
• Chapter 4, Describing the Relation between Two Variables
• A new “by-hand” example was added to determine correlation and least-squares regression and show that is not computationally intensive with the goal of increasing conceptual understanding.
• This revision emphasizes interpretation of a predicted value as the mean value of the response variable for the given value of the explanatory variable. The interpretation of slope and intercept of least-squares regression line has been rewritten.
• Chapter 7, The Normal Probability Distribution
• Section 7.1 contains a rewritten introduction of the normal probability distribution to emphasize the normal curve as a model.
• The discussion of the standard normal distribution has been incorporated into the presentation on Applications of the Normal Distribution.
• Finding area under a normal curve is presented in each example using both a by-hand approach using the normal table as well as a technology approach in a side-by-side presentation, which allows for complete flexibility in presenting how to find the area under a normal curve.
• Chapter 9, Estimating the Value of a Parameter
• The chapter now opens with estimation of a population proportion.
• The discussion of estimation of the mean with sigma known has been removed.
• A new section introducing the bootstrap method of estimating a parameter has been added.
• All the examples illustrating the construction of a confidence interval now present a by hand and technology solution side-by-side, which allows for flexibility in the approach taken in the course.
• In Section 9.2, Estimating the Mean, a new Example 2 is presented in which Student's t-distribution is compared to the standard normal distribution through simulation.
• Chapter 10, Hypothesis Testing Regarding a Parameter
• This chapter now presents hypothesis testing for a population proportion prior to hypothesis testing for a mean.
• The discussion of hypothesis testing for a population mean with sigma known has been removed.
• Each hypothesis test is now presented in a side-by-side example format, which includes the classical by hand approach, a by hand P-value approach, and a technology approach, again, providing the utmost in flexibility.
• New, additional exercises emphasize the difference between “accepting” and “not rejecting” the null hypothesis (Problem 36 in Section 10.2 and Problem 3S in Section 10.3).
• Chapter 11, Inference on Two Samples
• The chapter now begins with a discussion of inference on two proportions (both independent and dependent samples), and then presents a discussion of inference on means.
• As with the rest of the text, all examples present the solutions in a side-by-side format which includes technology solutions.
• Chapter 13, Comparing Three or More Means
• The Analysis of Variance procedures now include construction of normal probability plots of the residuals to verify the normality requirement.
• Chapter 14, Inference on the Least-Squares Regression Model and Multiple Regression
• Section 14.3, Multiple Regression, now includes a discussion of interaction effects as well as increased emphasis on indicator (dummy) variables.

 

Making Informed Decisions: Mike Sullivan helps students connect statistical concepts with their everyday lives, teaching them to think critically and make informed decisions.

• Putting It Together—found in chapter openers, sections, and exercises—connects concepts from different chapters to show statistics as a whole rather than a series of disconnected procedures. These are indexed at the beginning of the book for easy reference.
• Making an Informed Decision chapter openers pose a question, and then present the statistical concept necessary for prudent decision-making. This feature engages the reader in the statistical-thinking process and highlights the practicality of statistics.
• Activities have been updated and moved from the text chapters to their own Student Activities Workbook. Accompanied by an instructor resource guide with suggestions for incorporating activities into the classroom, the new workbooks helps to actively engage students with the material.

Checking Understanding opportunities appear throughout each section and at the end of every chapter for students to test their knowledge.

• NEW! Explaining the Concepts exercises follow Vocabulary & Skill Building and Applying the Concepts exercises at the end of each section. These new exercises ask the student to go beyond applying the concepts and explain their results in written form.
• Preparing for this Section quizzes verify that students have the prerequisite knowledge for the next section, and include page numbers for quick reference.

Practice, Practice, Practice

• Step-by-Step Annotated Examples guide students from problem to solution in three easy-to-follow steps. In this edition, the Solutions are demonstrating using both by hand and technology methods where applicable.
• Problem lays out the scenario of the example.
• Approach provides insight into the thought process behind the methodology used to solve the problem.
• Solution goes through the solution utilizing the methodology suggested in the approach
• “Now Work” problems follow most examples so that students can practice the concepts shown.
• Case Studies conclude each chapter, promoting active learning and helping students apply their knowledge.
• Chapter Review sections include a Chapter Summary, a list of key chapter Vocabulary, and Chapter Objectives with corresponding Review Exercises.
• Chapter Tests help students prepare for exams.
• Chapter Review answers are available at the back of the book.

Integrating Technology

• Technology Step-by-Step guides show how to use StatCrunch^®, Minitab^®, Excel^®, and the TI-83/84 graphing calculator to complete statistics processes.
• The Camtasia Lecture Video series feature author Mike Sullivan delivering in-class lectures and interacting with a live student audience. Students have access to a master teacher regardless of where and when they are studying.
• Data sets are included on the companion CD-ROM in multiple formats.
• Software output screens include displays from Minitab, TI-83/84, and Excel to illustrate exercises and examples where appropriate.
• Applets can be used in the classroom or as part a project featured in the Activity Workbook. Twenty applets on the companion CD-ROM allow students to interact with statistical concepts.
• Technology Answers are now included where they differ from by-hand answers.
• Accompanying Technology Manuals contain detailed tutorial instructions and worked out examples and exercises for TI-83/84 and 89 calculators and Excel.

 

With training in mathematics, statistics, and economics, Mike Sullivan, III has a varied teaching background that includes 15 years of instruction in both high school and college-level mathematics. He is currently a full-time professor of mathematics and statistics at Joliet Junior College. Mike has numerous textbooks in publication in addition to his Introductory Statistics Series, which include a Developmental Math series, and a Precalculus series, which he writes with his father, Michael Sullivan. Mike has built this book in the classroom using feedback from his students. He is well aware of the challenges of students taking an introductory statistics course. His goal is for students to be more informed interpreters of data, so that they will be better decision makers and have stronger critical-thinking skills. When not in the classroom or writing, Michael enjoys spending time with his three children, Michael, Kevin, and Marissa, and playing golf.